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Vitamin D study #44 of 96
11/17 Late treatment study
Murai et al., JAMA, doi:10.1001/jama.2020.26848 (preprint 11/17) (Peer Reviewed)
Effect of a Single High Dose of Vitamin D3 on Hospital Length of Stay in Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial
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Very late stage (mean 10 days from symptom onset, 90% on oxygen at baseline) vitamin D supplementation RCT not showing significant differences.
Ethnicity was poorly matched between arms, and diabetes was 41% in the treatment arm vs. 29% in the control arm. Baseline ventilation was 15% in the treatment arm vs. 12% control, this alone may account for the higher mortality. Calcifediol, which avoids several days delay in conversion, may be more successful, especially with this very late stage usage.

Murai et al., 11/17/2020, Randomized Controlled Trial, Brazil, South America, peer-reviewed, 17 authors, dosage 200,000IU single dose.
risk of death, 48.7% higher, RR 1.49, p = 0.43, treatment 9 of 119 (7.6%), control 6 of 118 (5.1%).
risk of mechanical ventilation, 47.5% lower, RR 0.52, p = 0.09, treatment 9 of 119 (7.6%), control 17 of 118 (14.4%).
risk of ICU admission, 24.6% lower, RR 0.75, p = 0.30, treatment 19 of 119 (16.0%), control 25 of 118 (21.2%).

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance, however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes when combining the results of many trials.
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