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Vitamin D study #38 of 109
11/1 Analysis of outcomes based on serum levels
Cereda et al., Clinical Nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland), doi:10.1016/j.clnu.2020.10.055 (Peer Reviewed)
Vitamin D 25OH deficiency in COVID-19 patients admitted to a tertiary referral hospital
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Prospective cohort study of 129 adult hospitalized COVID-19 patients finding patients with vitamin D levels >20ng/mL had increased mortality after adjustment. This study does not account for the risk of having a serious enough case to be hospitalized, and adjustments for factors correlated with vitamin D levels could obscure a potential association with vitamin D levels.

Cereda et al., 11/1/2020, prospective, Italy, Europe, peer-reviewed, 13 authors.
risk of death, 120.0% higher, RR 2.20, p = 0.04, high D levels 10 of 30 (33.3%), low D levels 24 of 99 (24.2%), odds ratio converted to relative risk, >20ng/mL.
risk of ICU admission, 86.7% lower, RR 0.13, p = 0.59, high D levels 0 of 30 (0.0%), low D levels 5 of 99 (5.1%), continuity correction due to zero event (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm).

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance, however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes when combining the results of many trials.
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