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Vitamin D study #13 of 69
8/9 Analysis of outcomes based on serum levels
Carpagnano et al., J. Endocrinol. Invest., 2020, Aug 9, 1-7, doi:10.1007/s40618-020-01370-x (Peer Reviewed)
Vitamin D deficiency as a predictor of poor prognosis in patients with acute respiratory failure due to COVID-19
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Retrospective study 42 patients with acute respiratory failure, 81% with low vitamin D levels.
After 10 days, patients with severe vitamin D deficiency had a 50% probability of dying, while those with vitamin D ≥ 10 ng/mL had a 5% mortality risk, RR 0.1, p = 0.019.

Carpagnano et al., 8/9/2020, retrospective, Italy, Europe, peer-reviewed, 10 authors.
risk of death at day 26, 70.6% lower, RR 0.29, p = 0.05, high D levels 5 of 34 (14.7%), low D levels 4 of 8 (50.0%), >30 ng/mL.
risk of death at day 10, 90.0% lower, RR 0.10, p = 0.02, high D levels 2 of 34 (5.9%), low D levels 4 of 8 (50.0%), adjusted per study, >30 ng/mL.

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance, however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes when combining the results of many trials.
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